The U.S. light-duty automotive aftermarket will grow 5.2 percent year-over-year, according to the 2026 Joint Channel Forecast, and reach more than $500 billion by 2029.
The Joint Channel Forecast Model was prepared for MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers and the Auto Care Association and provides a comprehensive review of the U.S. automotive aftermarket and projections through 2029. It includes key macroeconomic factors and a detailed analysis of the automotive aftermarket landscape, and examines vehicle trends and changing consumer behaviors.
Growth is expected to be driven by projects that strengthen the non-warranty sale of parts, fluids and service labor; the aging U.S. light-duty fleet; an increase in advanced driver assistance systems and other emerging technologies; and consumer reliance on vehicles. Challenges include the Iran conflict.
“Despite ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, the U.S. automotive aftermarket continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience, driven by consumers’ commitment to maintaining and repairing their vehicles,” Emily Poladian, MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers president, said.
MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers serves manufacturers of vehicle parts, chemicals, tools, diagnostics and technologies.
The Auto Care Association represents the auto care industry including businesses that conduct vehicle service, maintenance and repair, and businesses that manufacture, distribute and sell motor vehicle parts, accessories, tools, equipment, materials and supplies.