The U.S. auto salvage auction market is entering a period of structural change, and for the first time in years, competitive pressure is reshaping the balance between its two dominant players: RB Global Inc. and Copart Inc.
Some analysts note that the online salvage auctions sector is poised for notable expansion moving forward as total-loss vehicles continue to funnel through digital channels and buyers increasingly adopt remote bidding and advanced platform technologies.
A combination of behavior shifts by U.S. auto insurer Progressive, changing accident economics, and widening performance gaps highlight the operational rebuild under way at Westchester, Ill.-based RB Global — as Copart, headquartered in Dallas, confronts volume headwinds that analysts say are no longer cyclical noise.
“Competitive intensity remains concentrated because the leading two firms control physical storage, proprietary marketplaces, and long-term insurance relationships that deter new entrants,” Mordor Intelligence said in a recent Growth Trends And Forecast report for 2025-2030.
The leading two firms, according to different analysts, are IAA Holdings Inc., which RB Global’s Ritchie Bros. acquired in 2023, and Copart.
RB Global’s rebuild emerges
RB Global’s multiyear integration of IAA is beginning to show tangible results across its platform, according to analysts, who say that after two years defined by customer churn, workflow redesign, and yard integration, the company is approaching its first “clean year” of post-acquisition comparables.
Bank of America Securities wrote Oct. 28 it sees “more opportunity than risk” when it comes to RB Global’s auto vertical, noting that 2026 is poised to be RB Global’s first undistorted performance year, with mid-single-digit gross transaction value (GTV) growth expected and stronger acceleration possible in 2027. Because of RB’s high operating leverage, even modest volume gains could translate into outsized profit improvement.
“In our view, RB acquisition of IAA in 2023 offers an attractive long-term opportunity to help claw back IAA’s market share (35 percent today vs ~50 percent prior) in the salvage vehicle market,” said Bank of America. “Even if Copart is ahead of IAA in certain metrics, insurance carriers do not want one platform dominating the entire market. In our view, we believe this provides an opportunity for RB to gain back some IAA lost share over time.”
That momentum was echoed by RB Global CEO Jim Kessler during the company’s Nov. 6 earnings call.
“Our disciplined execution was evident again in the quarter, with adjusted EBITDA increasing 16 percent on a 7 percent increase in [GTV],” Kessler said. “Starting with the automotive sector, our momentum continued and unit volume increased by 9 percent year over year. This marks the third consecutive quarter we have outpaced the market, achieving solid year-over-year gains in market share.”
Kessler also highlighted RB Global’s expanded partnership with the U.S. General Services Administration, saying the company expects to provide disposition services to approximately 35,000 remarketed vehicles on an annualized run rate basis.
“The dynamics for this space remain favorable, and our differentiated approach, grounded in operational efficiency, partner alignment, and ability to leverage our real estate, positions us to capture incremental share,” Kessler told investors.
“I am proud to share that our teammates continue to overdeliver on our commitments, consistently exceeding service-level targets, even as we scaled volumes in the quarter,” he added. “This operational discipline translates into tangible P&L benefits for our partners, reinforcing the value proposition of our platform.”
Analysts also have noted that the issues plaguing the collision repair industry — mainly declining accident rates and fewer claims filed — haven’t hit the insurance auction market quite as hard, although U.S. unit growth has slowed considerably and is flat overall this year.
However, RB Global/IAA year-over-year unit growth is positive +4.7 percent whereas Copart is down -2.8 percent, according to reports that say if overall unit growth is flat, it basically means that all RB Global growth is coming at Copart’s expense.
In fact, according to Bank of America Securities, 2026 is shaping up to be RB Global’s first “clean year” since completing its IAA acquisition, potentially setting the stage for renewed growth.
The firm expects RB’s GTV to improve from flat levels in 2024 and 2025 to mid-single-digit growth in 2026, with even stronger gains possible in 2027.
Bank of America also said that increasing activity in commercial transportation and continued market share gains in auto auctions should drive that rebound.
With higher volumes, RB Global is positioned for meaningful profit upside due to its high operating leverage, its report said.
Bank of America also noted that long-term forces such as rising vehicle complexity and higher repair costs continue to support RB’s salvage business, even as some consumers trim back on smaller insurance claims due to financial strain.
The firm said skipping a minor claim on a high deductible is becoming more common, but major accidents and large claims remain unavoidable, helping sustain demand in the salvage market.
Insurer behavior shifts
At the same time, insurance companies are behaving differently in a high-inflation environment, and analysts say the rise in uninsured and underinsured drivers is reducing the number of vehicles routed into salvage channels.
In turn, this is producing short-term volume pressure, particularly for Copart, which relies heavily on domestic insurance totals.
CJS Securities noted Nov. 24 that the ongoing rise in uninsured and underinsured motorists continues to weigh on salvage vehicle volumes in the short term. However, the firm did say that the cost of auto insurance has begun to level off after a sharp climb, improving affordability for drivers.
At the same time, key indicators of driving activity are picking up, which should support future accident claims and vehicle supply, the firm said.
And as insurance becomes more affordable and driving trends strengthen, CJS expects salvage volumes to return to growth, though the timing remains uncertain.
Progressive’s steady tailwinds
One dynamic increasingly noted by analysts is the market influence of Progressive, now the fastest-growing major auto insurer.
As Progressive gains share from competitors, the mix of vehicles, claim severity, and total-loss behavior is shifting across the salvage ecosystem. More technologically advanced vehicles, higher repair costs, and Progressive’s long-standing claims discipline collectively increase the likelihood of total-loss determinations, say analysts.
JPMorgan reported Nov. 24 that rising repair complexity means a larger portion of accident-involved vehicles will be totaled in the coming years, feeding long-term growth for salvage auctions.
Progressive, for one, has been increasing its unit market share with RB Global, say analysts, pointing out that going into the year, RB Global held about 75 percent of the Progressive salvage unit volume. In the past 30 or so days, RB Global has won a significant additional piece of Progressive’s business, increasing its share of Progressive units to approximately 90 percent.
“There is some market concern that Progressive share gains are slowing yet BofA analyst highlights that there is still net additions,” according to Bank of America. “In our view, this is a likely benefit for IAA that more drivers on the road are under Progressive.”
This incremental win will not be reflected in unit sales likely until January 2026, analysts add, but this is a material win from one of the most important insurance carriers in the country and could help RB Global regain market share to push the rivalry much closer to 50/50 industry dynamics compared to 35/65 RB Global/Copart today.
Early market share redistribution
Comparatively, Copart’s insurance volumes are down ~2.8 percent, according to public Yipit data, while JPMorgan reports U.S. insurance volumes declining ~10 percent year over year in the latest quarter.
Copart is experiencing higher operating costs, softer volumes, lower claims frequency, and growth concentrated in insurers where the company holds less share, such as with Progressive, for example.
And because Copart doesn’t disclose service-level metrics the way RB now does, the result is that insurers — especially Progressive — are showing preference toward improved performance and transparency.
Stock performance and operational metrics are beginning to show movement beneath the surface, as well, say analysts.
A Nov. 24 analysis from Seeking Alpha’s Robert J. Lake illustrates early signs of market redistribution: Over the past year, Copart shares fell 28.4 percent, while RB Global essentially broke even.
And since Copart’s all-time high in May, the stock is down 36 percent, while RB Global — despite being off its own highs — has significantly outperformed, according to Lake.
Still, the year-over-year divergence highlights the degree to which market share may already be shifting — slowly, but decisively.
Copart faces new pressure
Copart’s latest results underscore the industry’s mixed signals.
Jefferies reported Nov. 24 that Copart delivered slightly better-than-expected first-quarter earnings, generating 41 cents per share, even as sales slipped 0.7 percent to $1.16 billion.
Insurance auction volumes dropped 7.3 percent, but average selling prices climbed 8.4 percent, powered by strong global demand. Operating margins improved to 37.3 percent, demonstrating tight cost control despite lower supply.
For years, Copart has been insulated by scale, liquidity, and international buyer participation. Analysts still view its long-term fundamentals as extremely strong — CJS called its liquidity “second to none.”
But the company is now navigating conditions where domestic salvage supply is uneven and competitors are strengthening their operations more quickly than before.
The rivalry defines market’s next phase
Both companies benefit from structural tailwinds: more miles driven, more complex vehicles, and rising repair costs that increase total-loss frequency, say analysts.
However, Copart is increasingly dependent on global buyers to counterbalance U.S. insurance softness, while RB Global is positioning 2026 as the year its integration-heavy past gives way to more normalized growth.
Analysts also say this evolving rivalry will shape the market’s direction for years to come, with insurer behavior, repair economics, and competitive execution all determining who gains share as the next cycle unfolds.