The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has issued a report tracking U.S. refiners and blenders over the course of 2017 thus far, and in spite of growing demand abroad, they report both production and inventories are high.
The production growth–well above the five-year average nearing a five-year record–is directly attributable to similarly record high refinery runs. To give an idea of the sheer amount being processed, in the week of April 21, 2017, those runs went through more than 17.5 million barrels per day. At the time, it marked the first time refineries have exceeded that number since the EIA started publishing this data in 1990.
In the months since, that threshold has been pushed past another eight times. Nearly half of that is being turned into motor gasoline.
Despite this, the EIA said gasoline inventories have actually been declining, but for the moment, they remain higher than the previous five-year average. Large amounts of exports and an increased domestic demand are to blame for the decrease, with the largest share of that going to domestic sources.
Helping the situation has been the relative stability of crude oil prices. Since the beginning of April, the highest and lowest prices of Brent crude oil compared to the previous 52 weeks have been less than $13 per barrel. Gasoline prices are seeing similar stability, ranging 30 cents per gallon across a 52 week period. That is the single narrowest range since March 2004, barring a brief two-week exception.
The EIA also predicts motor gas consumption will continue to rise, albeit minimally, over the course of 2017.