New figures from the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) project that global demand for jet fuel to continue growing over the next 40 years, with consumption growing even faster in nations that are not members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
The latter applies especially to China and other Asian non-OECD countries, as demand for freight air transport and passenger air travel among them continues to grow. Between 2018 and 2050, the EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2019 notes that global commercial jet fuel use should more than double, from 13 quadrillion British thermal units (quads) to 29 quads. More than half of this growth will be triggered by non-OECD countries, to the extent that their collective consumption of jet fuel will surpass OECD countries’ own by 2040.
Growth of this magnitude also means that jet fuel consumption should increase faster than any other liquid transportation fuel through 2050.
Air freight transport is likely to grow at an annual rate of 2.6 percent, to a total of 330 billion revenue ton miles by the end of the period. Passenger air travel could nearly triple over the same timeframe, reaching around 18 trillion seat miles. While China and Southeast Asia will play a large part in this growth, globally, the EIA expects a growing middle class and rising household incomes to be major contributors. That said, Asian jet fuel consumption is predicted to outpace anywhere else on earth, accounting for 40 percent of global commercial jet fuel use by 2050.
Notably, though high, jet fuel consumption in this study was lower than the growth in freight and passenger travel indicators. The EIA credits this to fuel efficiency improvements to the global aircraft fleet at large, which they expect to increase by 20 percent by 2050.