The International Air Transport Association (IATA) maintains if current air transit trends continue, passenger numbers could double to 8.2 billion in 2037.
The estimate stems from the IATA’s latest 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast, which shows an increasing shift Eastwards in the center of gravity of the industry rests behind the continued strong growth.
Within the next two decades, officials said the predictor anticipates a 3.5 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR), which would translate to doubling passenger numbers from today’s levels.
“Aviation is growing, and that is generating huge benefits for the world,” Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s director general and CEO, said. “A doubling of air passengers in the next 20 years could support 100 million jobs globally. There are two important things that stand out about this year’s forecast. Firstly, we are seeing a geographical reshuffling of world air traffic to the East. And secondly, we foresee a significant negative impact on the growth and benefits of aviation if tough and restrictive protectionist measures are implemented.”
Officials cautioned, however, that growth prospects for air transport, and the economic benefits driven by aviation, could be curtailed if governments implement protectionist measures.
“This forecast is a cautionary warning to governments,” de Juniac said. “First, the industry will grow, but they must clear the infrastructure bottlenecks to bring that growth to their home markets. And secondly, governments must understand that globalization has made our world more socially and economically prosperous. Inhibiting globalization with protectionism will see opportunities lost.”