The shift toward large unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) will accelerate in the next 20 years, according to a study conducted by the Aerospace Industries Association of America and consulting firm Avascent.
“This is not going to be an overnight transformation,” the study said. “There will be distinct stages that reflect varied phases of adoption across aircraft weight classes, economic sectors, and business models. Yet this future is moving from the theoretical to the practical faster than most anticipate.”
UAS adoption will eventually include wide-body commercial aircraft, a process that began in the 1980s with the reduction of flight crews. More recently, there has been an increase in cockpit automation.
The first step in the automated process will involve sensors such as ground surveillance. The first users, according to the report, will be construction firms, energy companies, farmers and fire departments.
These groups already have experience using smaller drones. Larger UAS, however, provide onboard data processing, sophisticated sensor payloads and improved endurance, the study said.
The first commercial aircraft are expected to be cargo jets and intra-city passenger flights with pilots on board as backup.
Around 2032, the prototypes of long-haul cargo and passenger aircraft will begin being manufactured, the report forecasts.