Nations that are not part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) will see energy consumption rise rapidly compared to OECD countries, a report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration found.
The report forecasts energy consumption for non-OECD nations will grow through 2040.
The report considered six scenarios: reference-case projections, high and low liquids demands, International Transportation Energy Demand Determinants, natural-gas vehicle subsidy, and natural-gas price and infrastructure subsidy.
“Non-OECD countries experience more growth in their transportation sectors than OECD countries in the reference cases, through 2040,” the report said. “Because many people in non-OECD countries are purchasing vehicles for the first time during the projection period, changes in vehicle fuel economy or fuel choice can have an effect more quickly than in countries with existing large vehicle stocks.”
Developed nations already have high vehicle-per capita ratios, the report said.
Consumer preferences in the transportation sector create uncertainty in the forecasting. These preferences include whether customers prefer fuel efficiency to other vehicle features or whether they prefer public transportation.
Government policies also create uncertainty. Some countries have adopted fuel economy standards, and while vehicles are made for a global market, it is unknown how these standards will affect non-regulated markets.