American Trucking Association’s Chief Economist Bob Costello said Monday the current truck driver shortage has risen to 80,000 – an all-time high for the industry – and may reach as much as 160,000 by 2030.
While all sectors in the industry struggle to find enough drivers, a one-page summary of Costello’s findings said the shortage is most acute in the longer-haul for-hire truckload market.
“Since we last released an estimate of the shortage, there has been tremendous pressure on the driver pool,” Costello said. “Increased demand for freight, pandemic-related challenges from early retirements, closed driving schools and DMVs, and other pressures are really pushing up demand for drives and subsequently the shortage.”
Based on driver demographic trends, including age and gender, combined with expected freight growth, the shortage could surpass 160,000 in 2030, Costello said.
“A thing to note about the shortage is that before the pandemic, we were adding drivers to the industry – even though we had a shortage, more people were entering the industry,” Costello said. “The issue is that new entrants into the industry didn’t keep up with demand for goods.”
Costello said that the industry will need to recruit nearly one million new drivers over the next decade to close the gap caused by demand for freight, projected retirements, and other issues.
“Because are a number of factors driving the shortage, we have to take a number of different approaches,” Costello said. “The industry is raising pay at five times the historic average, but this isn’t just a pay issue. We have an aging workforce, a workforce that is overwhelmingly male, and finding ways to address those issues is key to narrowing the shortage.
Shortages are not caused by any single reason, the report said, but a combination of things, including the average age of drivers being higher, which leads to a higher number of retirements, the inability of would-be and current drivers to pass drug tests, the federally mandated minimum age of 21 to drive commercially across state lines, and infrastructure issues, like a lack of truck parking spots and congestion which limits drivers’ ability to safely and efficiently make deliveries.