New York City’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) recently released its preliminary 2023 budget and four-year financial plan.
The document predicts New York City Transit and commuter railroads ridership will reach 80 percent of pre-pandemic levels by 2026. Revenue from passenger fares is predicted to fall $500 million in 2026 compared to a prior forecast and $1.8 billion compared to pre-pandemic forecasts.
The decline is attributed to fewer non-work trips, a slower-than-expected return to the office for many employers, and customer concerns over safety.
“Identifying new, dedicated revenues to fund mass transit is imperative as we seek to address our fiscal cliff,” MTA Chair and CEO Janno Lieber said. “Transit is essential to the economic future of New York as we continue to recover from the pandemic, and it should be treated as an essential service, with strategies that don’t just put the problem on the backs of our riders through painful service cuts and fare increases.”
The financial plan section of the document forecasts that within two years the agency will have annual structural deficits of $2.5 billion. This will increase to $2.75 billion in 2028.
The deficits are attributed to a decline in passenger fares.
McKinsey & Co. conducted ridership forecasts.