The National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) forecasts that 16.8 million new cars and light trucks will be sold in 2019, a 1.1 percent decline.
Rising interest rates may curtail sales in 2019 as may a decrease in incentives. Incentive spending is down compared to 2017.
Auto sales were strong in November, so it is expected U.S. auto sales will reach at least 17 million units sold this year, the fourth consecutive year to surpass 17 million units.
“This was unexpected,” NADA senior economist Patrick Manzi said at an industry briefing. “We were expecting sales to fall off a little more than they have this year, but then the new tax law was passed which put more money in the pockets of consumers and they certainly purchased new vehicles at dealer showrooms. The majority of these sales, following the trend of past years, have been light trucks, such as crossovers, pickups and SUVs.”
This year, light trucks were approximately 70 percent of sales. Last year, they were 64.5 percent of sales. This compares to 2008, when cars were 52 percent of sales.
The move away from cars has two contributing factors, Manzi said: crossover utility vehicles are nearly as fuel efficient as sedans and gasoline prices have been low.
NADA represents U.S. franchised new-car dealerships.